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Oakland Raiders 2010 Season PreviewFootball Betting Lines08/26/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If the Oakland Raiders still have the gall to refer to their organization as the "Team of the Decades," they had better clarify which decades they mean exactly. In the first three of the 10 years comprising the just-passed decade, the Silver and Black were a playoff group and even appeared in a Super Bowl. In the next seven, with apologies to the Detroit Lions, the Raiders were the "Joke of the Decade." The first team in NFL history to lose 11 or more games for seven consecutive seasons, Oakland is a miserable 29-83 (.259) since 2003. They've had five different coaches over that stretch, a number of doomed quarterback experiments, and at least one low-level assistant nursing a broken jaw. Once-revered team owner Al Davis is 81, and having increasing trouble distancing himself from the perception that he's lost his grip on what it takes to build a successful NFL team in our post-millennium world. Yet Davis and Raiders fans both have hope that the dark age for this organization will end in 2010, and that the seven-year itch will be scratched with some consistent winning. "We thought that the decade of the 2000s would be ours, but boy we slipped," Davis told Sirius NFL Radio earlier this month. "We slumped. And now we come into the year 2010 and I really liken this team a great deal to the team of 1980 in which the great Jim Plunkett pulled us out of the doldrums, took us to the Super Bowl as a wild card and we had so many great players who eventually made their way into the Hall of Fame." Much of Davis' enthusiasm has to do with the team's latest QB reclamation project, ex-Redskins starter Jason Campbell, who will help the team turn the page from the bleak three-season tenure of former No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell. Though Campbell is only 20-32 as an NFL starter and never lived up to his first-round billing either, the owner is making him the symbol of the franchise's attempt to rise from the ashes. "I really predict great things for him," Davis told Sirius, adding that he sees Campbell as "a football player like I saw Jim Plunkett. He has everything. He was 13-0 in college at Auburn. He can throw up the field, he can run, he's big, he's smart." Of course, Campbell won't be able to move this team up the AFC West ladder himself. The Raiders have other potential trouble areas, from a thin offensive line to a nondescript receiving corps to a defensive front seven that must improve its long-standing rank as one of the worst run-stopping teams in the NFL. Still, Davis isn't alone in thinking the Raiders - who beat the playoff-bound Bengals and won at Pittsburgh and Denver over the second half of last year - are as close to being relevant as they've been in some time. "I think we have our stamp on this team," said Davis. "It's our personnel, it's our picks, it's our want to be great once again, to join the ranks of the elite and get back that number-one rating in terms of wins and losses since we've come into the league. " Below we take a capsule look at the 2010 edition of the Oakland Raiders, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein: 2009 RECORD: 5-11 (3rd, AFC West) LAST PLAYOFF APPEARANCE: 2002, lost to Tampa Bay, 48-21, in Super Bowl COACH (RECORD): Tom Cable (9-19 in two seasons with Raiders, 9-19 overall) OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Cable DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: John Marshall OFFENSIVE STAR: Jason Campbell, QB (3618 passing yards, 20 TD, 15 INT with Washington) DEFENSIVE STAR: Nnamdi Asomugha, CB (34 tackles, 1 INT) OFFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 21st rushing, 29th passing, 31st scoring DEFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 29th rushing, 7th passing, 23rd scoring KEY ADDITIONS: QB Jason Campbell (from Redskins), QB Kyle Boller (from Rams), RB Rock Cartwright (from Redskins), RB Michael Bennett (from Chargers), TE John Owens (from Seahawks), T Bruce Campbell (4th Round, Maryland), OL Daniel Loper (from Lions), OL Jared Veldheer (3rd Round, Hillsdale (Mich.)), DT John Henderson (from Jaguars), DE Quentin Groves (from Jaguars), DL Lamarr Houston (2nd Round, Texas), DL Chris Cooper (free agent), LB Kamerion Wimbley (from Browns), LB Rolando McClain (1st Round, Alabama) KEY DEPARTURES: QB JaMarcus Russell (released), QB J.P. Losman (to Seahawks), RB Justin Fargas (to Broncos), RB Gary Russell (not tendered), WR Javon Walker (to Vikings), T Cornell Green (to Bills), LB Kirk Morrison (to Jaguars), LB Jon Alston (to Buccaneers), DE Greg Ellis (released), DT Gerard Warren (to Patriots) QB: While Campbell must look like Johnny Unitas to Raiders fans when compared with Russell, fans would be wise to temper their enthusiasm about him just a bit. Though he has high-end physical skills and is twice the leader that Russell was, the former first-rounder was oft-criticized in Washington for his aversion to taking chances down the field. Given Davis' preference for a vertical, big-strike offense, that's an allergy that Campbell is going to want cured. The rest of the depth chart is interesting, as Bruce Gradkowski (1007 passing yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) seemed to be in line for the No. 2 job after playing well late in 2009, but ex-Raven and Ram Kyle Boller (899 passing yards, 3 TD, 6 INT with the Rams) inserted himself into the mix with a strong preseason coupled with Gradkowski's injury struggles. It seems unlikely that the team would keep two veteran QBs as backups, but stranger things have happened around this franchise. Ex-Redskin Colt Brennan seems like a long shot to stick at this point. RB: While Campbell is going to be under great scrutiny, it will also be worth keeping an eye on a running back group that has underachieved in recent years. Darren McFadden (357 rushing yards, 1 TD, 21 receptions) has yet to live up to his top-five billing amid myriad injuries, and the former Arkansas star has been bypassed on the depth chart by the bigger and more durable Michael Bush (589 rushing yards, 3 TD, 17 receptions). The Raiders will look for contributions from both players, but Bush is likely to be the first man in. Oakland brought in another former Redskin, Rock Cartwright (228 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 1 TD with Washington), mainly to handle kickoff returns. His presence on the roster makes journeyman Michael Bennett's (65 rushing yards with the Chargers) status tenuous. At fullback, Luke Lawton (7 receptions) has been a generally reliable player over the past couple of seasons, but will be unavailable until Week 3 due to a steroid suspension and was hampered by concussions in the preseason. Those situations could open the door for second- year man Marcel Reece (2 receptions) to serve in the role. WR/TE: The makeup of the Raiders' receiving corps has long been a chicken-or- egg argument. Were Oakland's wideouts unproductive because they lacked talent and/or skill, or did they struggle due to the lack of a capable quarterback to get them the ball? Clearly, the Silver and Black are banking on the latter, because there are few new faces here. All eyes will be on former first-rounder Darrius Heyward-Bey (9 receptions, 1 TD), who had a terrible rookie season and was outplayed by guys like Louis Murphy (34 receptions, 4 TD) and Chaz Schilens (29 receptions, 2 TD). Murphy and Schilens are still in the mix, though Schilens had knee surgery during the preseason and might not be ready for Week 1. That will afford an opportunity to someone like Todd Watkins (8 receptions), Johnnie Lee Higgins (19 receptions), or speedy rookie fourth- rounder Jacoby Ford (Clemson). The team's most reliable target, tight end Zach Miller (66 receptions, 3 TD), will again be in the lineup, and Brandon Myers (4 receptions) and Tony Stewart (10 receptions) again appear set to back him. OL: Whatever strides the Raiders might make at quarterback and/or wide receiver will be rendered moot if this group can't protect Campbell and make holes for the running backs. The bad news is that there's not an elite-level lineman on this group, the good is that 80 percent of the line is expected to remain intact. On the left side, tackle Mario Henderson is adequate and guard Robert Gallery - who missed 10 games last year with a back problem - has become a reliable piece when healthy. Henderson and right guard Cooper Carlisle were the only Oakland o-lineman to start every game a year ago. The trouble spots are at center, where neither Samson Satele nor Chris Morris is any great shakes. Though Satele will probably be the guy on opening day, there's a chance the team could try third-round project Jared Veldheer there. Then there's right tackle, where prodigal son Langston Walker is not really a long-term answer. The team would probably like to see Bruce Campbell (Maryland), a fourth-round pick who some thought would go much earlier, emerge as a viable candidate at the position. DL: Though his presence didn't translate to a win increase, Richard Seymour (47 tackles, 4 sacks) gave the Oakland defense an immediate blast of credibility when the Patriots shockingly dealt him to the Bay Area on the eve of the 2009 season. The group around Seymour, who plays inside in Oakland's base 4-3 look, has been enhanced as well. Second-round draft pick Lamarr Houston (Texas) has the versatility to play inside or outside, and ex-Jaguars tackle John Henderson (36 tackles, 3 sacks with Jacksonville) has Pro Bowl citations on his resume'. Big-money tackle Tommy Kelly (54 tackles, 1 sack) is still hanging around as well, and ends Matt Shaughnessy (29 tackles, 4 sacks) and Jay Richardson (23 tackles, 3 sacks) are decent edge rushers who each appeared in all 16 games a year ago. LB: Raiders fans should be highly encouraged at how the Raiders upgraded the linebacking corps in the offseason. From a pass-rushing standpoint, Oakland dealt for Kamerion Wimbley (68 tackles, 6.5 sacks with Cleveland), who along with Trevor Scott (38 tackles, 7 sacks) should be able to make up for the production that departed when the team failed to re-sign Greg Ellis. On the inside, first-round pick Rolando McClain (Alabama) is a major upgrade over Kirk Morrison, who is now with the Jaguars. McClain's size alone gives Oakland more of a dimension in the run-stopping game. The Raiders have decent depth at LB as well, as Thomas Howard (79 tackles, 2 sacks) and Ricky Brown (30 tackles) both have starting experience and Quentin Groves (28 tackles, 1 INT with the Jaguars) is an occasionally active pass-rusher. DB: Give a lot of credit to the Raiders secondary, which has done a nice job over the past few seasons with very little in the way of consistent help from the front seven. With a better group playing in front of them, the secondary might finally be recognized as one of the best in the league. At corner, Nnamdi Asomugha is acknowledged as elite, and Chris Johnson (67 tackles, 3 INT) has converted himself from a marginal NFL player to an above-average NFL corner. Stanford Routt (28 tackles, 1 sack) is still in the mix at CB as well, and seventh-round pick Stevie Brown (Michigan) has opened some eyes with a good camp. At strong safety, Tyvon Branch (119 tackles, 1 sack) was a 16-game starter and isn't going anywhere. The unending competition between Michael Huff (55 tackles, 3 INT) and Hiram Eugene (33 tackles, 1 INT) at free safety might not subside anytime soon. Both players have their moments, but neither has been consistent. Many pundits laughed when the Raiders reached for safety Mike Mitchell (13 tackles, 1.5 sacks) in the second round last year, but Mitchell was on the field for all 16 games in 2010 and actually looks to be developing into a decent player. SPECIAL TEAMS: As usual, the Raiders have very little to worry about in the kicking game. Punter Shane Lechler made his third straight Pro Bowl (and fifth overall) after posting the second-best single-season punting average (51.1 avg.) in NFL history, while kicker Sebastian Janikowski (26-29 FG) was a Pro Bowl snub. Cartwright (22.3 kickoff return avg. with Washington), who has 222 kickoff returns since breaking into the league in 2002, was brought in to handle those duties in Oakland. Higgins (5.2 punt return avg.) is just two years removed from a three-touchdown year as punt returner, and will get the first crack there this year. Rookie Jacoby Ford has a chance to be in the mix as well. Jon Condo, who played in the Pro Bowl last year, begins his third year as the Raiders' long-snapper. PROGNOSIS: Though many Raiders fans are as optimistic as the team's owner about the prospects for a renaissance this year, the jettisoning of JaMarcus Russell was hardly a cure-all. Campbell is a better quarterback but is unproven in his own right, and playing with a new supporting cast, to include a highly suspect offensive line, is not necessarily going to allow him to deliver on his promise. Things figure to be better defensively, and if that group can keep the Raiders in some games, and Campbell and the offense develop some early chemistry and have good luck with injuries, there's a chance this team can enter December with something to play for. That might not sound like a return to glory, but after the past seven years, it has to be worth something.
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Sportsbook Betting LinesWho Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error. “You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. “The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10). How the Opening Line Is MadeThe opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades. Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias. The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line. Why Sports Betting Lines ChangeOnce the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action. Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite. Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.” To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds. MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting. "They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over." Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.) According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26. As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines). Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday. Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind. *UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007 New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results. "We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games." While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season." About MySportsbook.com Sports Casino Poker To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Master Card needs. |
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